Call of Duty is Almost Done

Via this article on a meaningless petition, I happened across the interesting statistic that beginning with Black Ops II, each successive iteration of Call of Duty has seen double-digit decline in sales. That's huge!! Some of this is due no doubt to online sales (I bought Advanced Warfare on PSN), but Activision isn't crowing about beating any sales records, and Bobby Kotick isn't one to keep mum when business is good. All is proceeding as I have foreseen.

The problem with entertainment is people need novelty. A couple years ago, I predicted COD's relentless pace of annual releases would cause product fatigue in the market. The core issue isn't quality. COD continues to be the best shooter for your money. The problem is that as soon as a new game drops, the clock starts ticking. You've got twelve months to enjoy it before the next version hits and 70% of the people you play with move on to the next game. Unless you play every day, you're probably going to feel like you didn't get everything you wanted out of the game before it died.


Successful inter-generational franchises space out the releases far enough for each one to be a major event. Grand Theft Auto (a game I happen to loathe) might not have gross LTD sales as high as Call of Duty, but it's proven to be a much more stable source of revenue for Rockstar. Activision's getting ready to release the twelfth iteration of Call of Duty, no doubt to even greater apathy than Advanced Warfare met. Today's teenagers and college students, who are always the drivers of the FPS market, don't seem that excited by the game.


So far, every console generation has had a fun, accessible multiplayer shooter that blew up sales charts and ruled dorm rooms. It was Goldeneye back in the 1990s, Halo when I was in college, and Call of Duty more recently. It will be interesting to see if anyone can figure out how to capture that segment as everyone seems to be getting tired of the killstreaks and perks that defined COD.